SUMMARY

EDITORIAL: Congo is at risk of chaos among one proclamation and another

1. PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS: IRREGULARITIES AND FRAUDS

2. THE OPPOSITION LOOKS FOR STRATEGIES

3. POLITICAL CRISIS AT THE HORIZON

4. VERDICT OF THE SUPREME COURT

5. INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY REACTION

6. ONCE AGAIN, TSHISEKEDI PROCLAIMS HIMSELF PRESIDENT

7. JOSEPH KABILA SWEARS AS PRESIDENT

EDITORIAL: CONGO IS AT RISK OF CHAOS AMONG ONE PROCLAMATION AND ANOTHER

Two possible winners

On December 20th 2011, Joseph Kabila, has taken oath as President of the Republic. Etienne Tshisekedi has informed that he will do the same tomorrow, Friday 23rd December at the Martyrs Stadium, in Kinshasa. None of the foreign countries wants to doubt Kabila’s victory. The international community, namely those States and institutions closest to the DR Congo, as the US, the United Kingdom, Belgium and the EU have been surprised by the apparent ballot results: firstly stating to wait for a verification of the results by the Supreme Court of Justice and lastly by leaving the investiture ceremony with the ambassadors as their delegates. The African governments have delegated to their ministries. Only Mugabe from Zimbabwe was present at the ceremony and kept his position in power after debatable elections. After the elections, Tshisekedi did not make a discourse inciting people to violence but he has refused to appeal to Court which is considered to be in favor of Kabila. He is confident about his victory and acts accordingly to it with no dialogue with his opponent. His political party, UDPS, has proposed peaceful manifestations all around the country. Will this be true? What will be the opponent reaction who generally leads an army with no scruple? What will then happen to population? Can this go against them as the trampled grass left by two elephants which are fighting?

The risk of a widespread violence

All observers have emphasized that there have been frauds apart from the irregularities caused by the organization insufficiencies. All of them agreed by stating that these frauds have been done by the kabalists and condemned the strong arm used by the leaving president. What will happen now? The risk is that the actual regime could strongly oppose the concentration that will take place tomorrow at the Martyrs Stadium. Another risk is that there could be more dead people to be added to those already silenced by the army and the police during the last few weeks. The risk is that the whole country gets driven to violence. In this country there is not a charismatic personality such as Martin Luther King to mobilize and educate people in a fight against violence. On the contrary, there is a general feeling of having met the resistance limits which can lead people to radical decisions. At the same time, in the East, a self-proclaimed resistance movement against the country occupation has made its appearance and invites people to a military and generalized mobilization to fight against the country occupation perpetrated by countries such as Rwanda, Uganda and their backers in the US and Europe and to finally put an end to richness expropriation.

The violence path has clearly shown to the eastern population of the country that it only takes suffering, destruction and death. In an armed conflict, all purest ideals are corrupted and population is finally trapped at all levels. The poverty and unemployment conditions that the majority of young people are facing can be the reason for new massacres. The fragility of the western population dealing in an armed conflict is that they only knew partially the war anguishes and they have usually considered the suffering of the East as far and alien to their lives.

Search for alternatives

At this moment, everybody is called to reflect for searching, proposing and setting up alternative strategies. There is no time to support one or another candidate as the best one. There have been elections. At this stage, supporting one or another candidate has no sense unless there are clear proofs of the vote results. Anyway, after the proclamation of the results by the Independent National Electoral Commission and later confirmed by the Supreme Court, we should ask ourselves if there is still a margin to act. In the name of truth and justice we must continue to search and find the truth of the ballot boxes even though this might not lead to any practical effect. At least where it is still possible as there are some irregularities which are irremediable. A cancellation of the elections is not possible now due to the cost of a new electoral process. On the other hand, problems started on January 15th 2011 when the modification of the Constitution was adopted lifting the second round of the presidential elections.

Taking into account all the propositions made by all countries, groups, nets and individuals such as those made by the Net for Peace for Congo, we make the following propositions:

Short-term propositions:

1. It should be demanded to President Joseph Kabila and his Government to renounce to any disproportionate and indiscriminate violence measure aimed at suppressing civil population expression with the Army and State Police on service to town.

2. It should be requested an unconditional dialogue to the two main protagonists and their political allies for the benefit of the Country.

3. To be able to examine elections results in the polling stations thanks to the presence of thousands of national observers during the vote and the counting of the ballots. On that moment, we witness a polarization of those intervening and it can be useful the aid of an international verification commission which should be accepted by both parties within a specific period of time.

4. It should immediately be created a system for a considerate vigilance on the vote count of the legislatives elections, since it has been marked a possible fraud case.

5. Taking into account the great acceptance that Etienne Tshisekedi has gained among Congolese people, international pressure should be made to Joseph Kabila in order to find a way to distribute power. If not, due to his intransigence, with Tshisekedi it should be done with at least one member of his party.

6. The civil society, the educational institutions and the confessionals must maintain their commitment for the education of the citizens in order to consolidate democracy and to exert popular control over the chosen ones.

Long and Medium-term propositions:

7. All the educational, religious and secular institutions must move forward to achieve democracy through basic education and local initiatives.

8. The next step of the electoral process must be a school for creating the future all over the country.

On that moment, the press and the international politics cannot leave DR Congo. The partial failures of the electoral process is a consequence of a long history of international exploitation of the country richness and the international politics ambiguity which is controlled by the economic, political and financial interests and it blocks people to walk towards their freedom.

1. PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS: IRREGULARITIES AND FRAUDS

On December 14th, Victoria Nuland, spokeswoman of the US department, has declared that “the management and the technical execution of the presidential elections have been sprinkled of irregularities and lack of transparency and they have not been managed according to the growth of democracy seen in the recent African elections”. Nevertheless, Victoria Nuland has informed to ignore if these irregularities and the lack of transparency in the ballots count “have been sufficient to change the results”. Once again, the US requested to “Congo authorities concerned” to examine the statements of irregularities “with the greatest openness and transparency”. “A quick technical examination of the electoral process permits to fix the results “as more credible” and to show if the irregularities have been caused by a failure of the organization or if they have been caused by fraud” Mrs. Nuland has declared. The US is ready to “offer technical aid”, she added.

The consensus on the existence of an important fraud during the Congo presidential elections is even more widespread. It is still pending the evaluation of the disaster. According to the Weekly newspaper “Young Africa” (“Jeune Afrique”), the importance of the fraud might be considerable due to the late arrival of a huge amount of ballots. This newspaper points out that CENI decided to extend the recount for two additional days due to the ballots shortage in some of the polling stations after the official closure of the polling stations on November 28th. Two airplanes would have sent to Lubumbashi millions of ballots from Johannesbourg. After this event, all was so confusing that people started to ask about these ballots. Would they have been distributed in the remaining polling stations or would they have been deviated and marked in favor of president Kabila?

With regards to the recount of the presidential elections results a considerable increase of the enrolled as well as an increase in the participation in the areas close to Joseph Kabila and a weaker affiliation and participation in those regions favorable to the opposition were generally noticed. It is clear that in case fraud had taken place, it has been related to the increase of votes favorable to Kabila and to the decrease of votes favorable to Tshisekedi. It has been particularly seen in the Polling Stations with an absolute mess with ballots sacks piled, trampled or thrown on the floor. In such a way the clues provided by the ballots and the P.V. have been lost making fraud easier to be done. The political observers have drawn a long list of irregularities and frauds.

Thierry Vircoulon who has followed the vote of the International Crisis Group has claimed that the results had disappeared mainly in those regions where the president is less popular for a strange reason: regions such as Kinshasa or Kasaï. “There were geographically selected disappearances” It is easy to figure out who is the responsible of the geographic design. It is easy to figure out its purpose too.

Thierry Vircoulon, responsible of the ICG (International Crisis Group) on Central Africa considers that “a verification of the results by an independent third party” is needed. According to Thierry Vircoulon, that verification was not very complex from a technical point of view. On the contrary, it was complex from a political point of view. It does not only mean to recount all the ballots. The opposition has developed a complete dossier about this matter including numerous detailed cases of irregularities. The political parties of the opposition can do it but it would be interesting that an independent third party would have done it. It should be the Carter Center who has worked in these elections or some other international organizations specialized in the elections. This is complicated from a political point of view. A strong pressure to President Kabila should be done in order to get this done. President should accept the possible victory of the opposition too and he should deliver money. That would be probably the only way to deactivate the Congolese time bomb that threatens to explode in a short period of time.

2. THE OPPOSITION LOOKS FOR STRATEGIES

On December 12th, Etienne Tshisekedi, the leader of the Union for the Democracy and Social Progress (UDSP) “has made a call to the international community asking for a solution. An answer for mediation from the international community is expected” said Albert Moleka, Opposition Press Office Director. “That does not mean that the use of the right to peaceful demonstrations made by the population as protest against the fraudulent results (of presidential elections) will not be a provocation”. He added not to dismiss the possibility of using similar actions. “The unique solution is to respect the truth of the ballot boxes. We are victims of an electoral robbery carried out by a man who has a violent army to which the opposition cannot confront” he concluded.

On December 13th, Vital Kamerhe, candidate to the Union for the Congolese Nations (UNC) for presidential elections claimed “the opposition seizes the Secretary-General and the UN Security Council, the commission of the African Union, EU, SADC and CEAC regarding the political crisis after the elections in DRC in order to ask for mediation”.

On December 14th,, Jacquemin Shabani, UDPS Secretary-General, said that his party has confirmed “the victory” of their leader despite the many ploys by their opposites” and he asked the population “to protect their victory” via “peaceful and democratic manifestations”. He also pointed out that “there is an imminent political crisis seen in the crisis raised after the elections as result of the publication of the provisional results by the Independent National Electoral Commission (CENI) and it should be considered some possible political solutions”. He added that these solutions might come from mediation (international or national) but what is important is that these solutions will not come from any kind of violence.

Léon Kengo, Antipas Mbusa y Adam Bombole, the three presidential candidates have asked for the annulment of the recount made on November 28th and the creation of a transition government. “No way!” It was the answer from the UDPS leaders who agreed that Tshisekedi had won the elections with a vast majority.

On December 15th, the political party of Vital Kamerhe (Union for Congo Nation) demanded a recount of the ballots “with the supervision of Monusco” (ONU Mission for the stabilization of Congo). He did not inform on how to do it: recount from the numerous polling stations (where PV were found) which are a complete mess or a recount of the results announced from the polling stations and which do not correspond to the publications made by the CENI

3. POLITICAL CRISIS AT THE HORIZON

In the framework of the confirmation of the CENI results by the SCJ a reaction from the Opposition is expected. An Opposition which shows different possible scenarios. The first door is opened towards the annulment of the elections and the creation of a transition government responsible for the setting up of new elections. Kengo, Mbusa and Bombole Adam have been put forward as possible candidates. The second scenario sees the UDPS supporting the “victory of Tschisekedi”. It rejects all kind of annulment of the vote count and insists in the acknowledgment of Etienne Tschisekedi as president-elect candidate. Finally, the third hypothesis foresees the involvement of the international community, supported by an international expert, to put some pressure on CENI in order to proceed in the counting of the votes and to solve the apparent technical problems revealed by the numerous irregularities that have been reported. It is clear that all these propositions differ from the proposition of the presidential Mouvance. For this reason, if the irregularities reported are true, they cannot affect the established order as CENI said. Therefore, the re-election of Kabila is legitimate. Crucial positions at both sides. There is no way back. In the name of “legitimacy” there is no doubt that president Kabila will use all the prerogatives to rule. On the other side, in the name of the “truth of the ballot boxes”, the Opposition will do everything it can to delegitimize the result of the process. There is an arm wrestling at the horizon. We are in a dead end. A political crisis is looming again with all its unpredictable consequences. Two are against the wall: the political class and the CENI who are taking hostage the Congolese people once again subjected to suffering and poverty. Whatever the reasons of both parties are, they have not accompany the Congolese people in their will to raise their head in time to build in peace a country better than the one they had before.11

According to Thierry Vircoulon, ICG, at this point there are three possible scenarios: an immediate popular rejection of Joseph Kabila in Kinshasa and in Kasai, where he is very unpopular; a spontaneous accident between security forces and opponents that will lead to riots; an apparent lack in 2012 of an immediate reaction to localized and recurrent security problems in the provinces more or less exploited by a marginalized opposition.

What can we do to end the political crisis? Some attempts of demonstration have been silenced in the East of the country (in Bukavu, Goma, Lubumbadshi) by security forces which are now in possess of all technical knowledge to prevent any kind of gathering. Signs of reprisals, which were unfortunately expected, have taken place in Katanga. The international community must demand a total transparency of the electoral process and even more important, a verification of the results by an independent third party. It must be alert as far as the legislative results is concerned, which are one of the key elements for the future political environment. It must condemn any act of post-electoral violence and demand the realization of investigations related to the breach of human rights in the context of the elections. 12

4. THE VERDICT OF THE SUPREME COURT

On December 15th, the Supreme Court of Justice (SCJ) examined the appeal filed by Vital Kamerhe, president of the Union for the Congolese Nation (UNC) who requested the cancellation of the count due to fraud. In this request he reported the “intentional violations” of the electoral law by CENI, namely the fact of not being able to meet the deadline for the placement of the elector lists and the publication of the cartography of the polling stations. The elector lists in each of the 64.000 polling stations should have been placed 30 days before the count rather than 48 hours before as it happened. He also denounced “the illegal and irregular circulation of the ballots” before the counting and of other ballots “already marked in favor of candidate number 3” Kabila on the day of the vote. The results “lack in honesty”, he added, referring to the polling stations where Kabila gained 100% of the votes, to the 3.2 million electors who voted for the derogation because of the absents in the lists and to the differences between the results of CENI and those published in the polling station.

At the opening of the hearing around 1pm (12am GMT), 4 hours late, SCJ President, Théodore Tuka asked plaintiff Vital Kamerhe to be present and made his request once again underlining that this involves not only the CENI but also the candidate Kabila.

The UNC President took part to the hearing on request of the Court which demanded the physical presence of the candidates involved in the case. Their lawyers asked for the application of the law to all parties, demanding the presence of candidate Joseph Kabila as well. The judges adjourned and rejected the demand.

Vital Kamerhe’s lawyers adjourned as well and then refused to “take part to a parody of justice”. The hearing continued without them.

The Public Prosecutor requested the Court to accept the request put forward by the president of the Union for the Congolese Nation (UNC) but to consider it groundless for “lacking in evidence”.

According to the Court, the claimant does not have to demonstrate that the electors contrary to the winning candidate had not voted, whilst he said that the absence of witnesses is not a reason for invalidation. He also added that the request does not demonstrate that the witnesses of the candidate Vital Kamerhe had been dismissed. Moreover, the Court affirms that there is no evidence to demonstrate that candidate number 3 has used State’s means to fight his campaign. Finally, it remarked that the process would have lead to the expulsion of the candidate but not to the invalidation of the count. As far as the existence of two minutes regarding Idiofa it said that this information is groundless as that minute had not been provided. The Public Prosecutor concluded saying to the Court that “the request must be declared valid in the form but groundless”.13

On December 16th, after the examination of all documents provided by Vital Kamerhe, the Court accepts the appeal in its form but it rejects its grounds. According to the judges, the breach of the electoral law by the CENI that the UNC denounces does not invalidate the presidential count of November 28th. According to the Court, Kamerhe does not provide evidence that the ballots were circulating the day before the counting. He does not provide evidence to prove that the witnesses were hampering the work in the polling stations and the transportation of the ballots towards the counting centers. Regarding the lack of honesty of the results, the copy of one PV is not considered valid. The SCJ has later confirmed the totality of the provisional results announced on December 9th by the Electoral Commission (CENI). Finally, the Court “has proclaimed elected with simple majority the president of the Democratic Republic of Congo in the person of Joseph Kabila”. 14

On December 17th, the Union for the Democracy and Social Progress (UDPS) has qualified as “not occurred”, the ruling of the Supreme Court of Justice (SCJ). According to the Secretary-General of the UPDS, Jacquemin Shabani, the “DRC is approaching a political crisis”. 15

5. INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY REACTION

The EU has informed that the Supreme Court of Justice has confirmed the results claimed by the CENI, “despite the inadequacies pointed out by the Congolese authorities and the CENI”. He insisted on “his worry about the many serious deficiencies and lack of transparency in the count and in the publication of the results of the presidential elections “.

The EU has threatened in “reconsidering their support” to the country in case there is no progress on the count of the legislative ballots. “It is now important to drawn lessons from what has happened and to assure that the count of the results for the legislative elections is done in conditions of total transparency and credibility” the EU Representative for the Foreign Affairs and Security Politics, Ms. Ashton said.

“The EU decisively encourages the CENI and the Authorities of Congo to take into account the concerns of the observation missions and to implement their recommendations and to be opened to the cooperation with the opposition” they added.

Asking to “all political forces to peace preservation”, the EU has pointed out that “every violent action should be banished at the same time that the legitimate right of expression must be preserved” and “the political dialogue is an essential means to reach that goal”.

“The EU requires clarifications to be made about the cited violations of human rights in the electoral context and in case there are people responsible that these should be taken to Court” Ms. Ashton has declared.

The US said to be “deeply disappointed” with the validation of the results by the SCJ, “without the total evaluation of the numerous reports of irregularities made”, said the Secretary of State Hillary Clinton in a press release. The Head of the American Diplomacy has condemned a count which was wrongly managed and with no transparency and she has suggested a review of the electoral process to be done.

The Belgian minister of Foreign Affairs, Didier Reynders, has also regretted the lack of “a deeper, critique and independent examinations of the results by the SCJ”.

The American Senate has strongly protested against the decision of the Supreme Court of Justice which declares Kabila Kabange as victorious of the presidential and has asked a review of the elections results. Senators Coons and Isakson are the ones who have made this declaration which was made after the decision by the SCJ on December 16th. They do not understand the confirmation of the results by the CENI after the reports about irregularities. In case this is not solved, the Democratic Republic of Congo is at risk to be driven to an escalation of violence or even to the country destabilization. In order to avoid it, both senators have requested the presence of the political parties to commit themselves to dialogue and to consider the process of a formal mediation with the support of the international community. They have also reiterated the US support to the DR Congo in their effort to progress to a democracy by pacific terms. They did not stop in requesting to Joseph Kabila to work together with Etienne Tshisekedi wa Mulumba for the resolution of their disagreements in favor of the process restoration.

On December 19th, in a press release, Amnesty International (A.I.) stated that “the security forces of the DR Congo must put an end to the many arrests made for political reasons and particularly to the illegal and arbitrary arrests made after the presidential elections which results have been questioned. Dozens of arrests have been carried out after the elections on November 28th. People appointed were mainly the members and partisans of the political opposition. According to some A.I. information this practice is being used as a method for intimidation and there are civilians, journalists, lawyers and people responsible for the political opposition as well as security forces agents among the victims.

Amnesty International asks the Congo authorities to provide information about what has happened to the arrested people and to release them in case they are not accused of a known infraction of the law and finally to authorize them to contest the legality of their arrest and to talk with a lawyer and visit their family.

6. ONCE AGAIN, TSHISEKEDI PROCLAIMS HIMSELF PRESIDENT

On December 18th, after the rejection of the results of the presidential elections that claimed victory to Joseph Kabila, who will swear as President of the Republic on December 20th, Etienne Tshisekedi insisted that he considered himself “president elect” of the DR Congo and announced that he will swear on December 23rd at the Martyrs Stadium, Kinshasa.

Etienne Tshisekedi has asked to the actual institutions to resign. “The government of Mr. Kabila is halved from that day”, the national president of the UDPS has stated in the press conference carried out at his residence in Kinshasa/Limete.

“The ministerial departments will be managed by the general secretaries until further orders. The eleven governors of the province will also be replaced by the directors of province” Etienne Tshisekedi has said.

“Officials, noncommissioned officers, corporals and soldiers of the national army of Congo are obliged to obey to the legitimate authority. The sovereign national police will do the same”, has said.

He has described president Kabila, as a “person moving murky”: “As far as the murky troublemakers is concerned, starting from Mr. Kabila as the head of them, I will ask to all of you to find him in any place of the national territory he can be and bring him to me alive. The person who takes me Kabila tied will have a very important reward”.

At the same time, he has made a call to calm to the Congo population: “The climate of harmony that is going to reign in the country will mark the trust that the external investors could have towards our country (…) I am going to ask you to keep calm and serenity…”

Etienne Tshisekedi has restored the intention of the national and international public opinion in the complete report of the Polling station of the UDPS and their allies where the real results of the presidential elections were made with all the indications: recount of polling station by polling station and according to all minutes of the day of the elections. The document with length of more than 500 pages was drawn up together with a summary of the results which would make President Etienne Tshisekedi winner with 56.2% of the votes against 35.91% for the outgoing president.

Etienne Tshisekedi has declared that any other manifestation should be considered as “not happened” for the Congolese who should just ignore it. That confirms the announcement made on December 17th by the G.S. of the Udps, M. Shabani about the declaration of the dead city (general strike) on Tuesday 20th December 2011 in Kinshasa and in the whole territory of the DR Congo.

“I am not ready to make negotiations neither with (Daniel Ngoy) Mulunda (Ceni president) nor with (Joseph) Kabila”, he said when one of the beaten candidates of he presidential, Vital Kamerhe, said to be ready for a dialogue with the outgoing president.

On the other hand, the general secretary of the Presidential Majority (MP), Aubin Minaku, has described the declarations made by the president of the UDPS as “a great mock and an incitement to rebellion”.

For Thierry Vircoulon, director of the Central Africa program in the NGO International Crisis Group (ICG), “it seems excessive to talk about a call to rebellion. It is mainly the back of the political technique which has been a proof of his ineffectiveness”.

On December 21st, days after the proclamation as DR Congo “president elect” and the rejection of the results during the presidential, Etienne Tshisekedi has confirmed his “swear” on Friday, December 23rd, three days after the Joseph Kabila investiture as President of the Republic. Forecasted by Tshisekedi, his swear has been confirmed in Kinshasa by posters addressed to Congo population asking them “to attend to the ceremony”. Date has been confirmed to be at 10H00 (09H00 GMT) at Martyrs Stadium. “We have planned to go to the stadium. If (Head of State) Joseph Kabila decides to oppose the population movement, he will be responsible for that”, Jacquemin Shabani, Secretary-General of the Union for the Democracy and Social Progress (UDPS), Tshisekedi party, said. After Sunday, the amours of the republican Guard took position at both sides of the Martyrs Stadium and in some other places of the capital. When being interrogated about the authorization to the local authority, M. Shabani has answered: “You cannot even imagine all people you have to ask to in order to receive an authorization for a demonstration, even being made by the president of the Republic”.

7. JOSEPH KABILA SWEARS AS PRESIDENT

On December 20th, Joseph Kabila testified, as the President of the Democratic Republic of Congo, at the Kinshasa Supreme Court of Justice (SCJ). Among the Heads of State who were invited, only Robert Mugabe, president from Zimbabwe, has travelled to the ceremony of investiture. Nearly a dozen of the invited Heads of State from Africa were represented by their Prime Ministers (Gabon, Rwanda and Tanzania), President of the National Assembly (Central Africa) or Ministers (Congo-Brazzaville, South Africa, Angola, Burundi, Chad…). Some ambassadors from the western countries (Belgium, France, UK, US) have attended to the ceremony.