SUMMARY

EDITORIAL

1. INCREASING TENSION IN THE RUN-UP TO THE DECLARATION OF RESULTS

   – Premature declarations of victory and reactions

   – HRW condemns pre-election violence

2. GRADUAL RELEASE OF PARTIAL RESULTS OF THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS

   – The Electoral Commission begins publishing gradual results

   – Reactions of candidates and political parties

   – Calls of civil society

   – Suspension of text communications

EDITORIAL

According to the electoral calendar established by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), the release of the tentative results for the presidential election was scheduled for December 6. But due to technical reasons, the INEC announced a 48-hour postponement. Notwithstanding this decision, it might be useful to assess the situation. Both the opposition and the Presidential Majority are convinced they will win the elections- at least for the presidency. The opposition has already said it will not accept the results released by the Electoral Commission if they are favourable to the incumbent president. To rephrase what was said by the President of the Congolese Bishops’ Conference, the situation can be likened to two high-speed trains travelling on the same path in opposite directions, heading straight towards each other. If we do not take the necessary precautions, a collision could be detrimental to the entire nation. The Congolese people have already suffered so much, and no one has the right to use violence to obtain or retain power. It would be wise to calmly wait for the Electoral Commission to release the full tentative results. Should contentious issues arise after that, they can be clarified and resolved by resorting to the use of legal mechanisms that the law has put in place.

1. INCREASING TENSION IN THE RUN-UP TO THE DECLARATION OF RESULTS

Premature declarations of victory and reactions

On November 30, the electoral process entered its toughest phase yet, as votes were tabulated in approximately 63,000 polling stations. The tentative presidential election results are not expected before December 6, although some are already claiming victory.

In an official statement, the Secretary General of the Union for Democracy and Social Progress (UDSP), Jacquemin Shabani, denounced the fraud and violence that have tainted the voting process. « Despite this, » the party did not call for an invalidation of the elections and insisted that, according to the “announced results,” Etienne Tshisekedi was “far ahead and leading by a wide margin in most regions,” whereas it was “very tight” in others.

The president of the Christian Democrats, Eugene Diomi Ndongala- one of the leaders of the “Dynamic Tshisekedi President”- announced the victory of the candidate, Tshisekedi, “with 55% of the votes,” and accused the incumbent President, Joseph Kabila, of planning to stage a “Coup d’Etat.”

The Secretary General of the Presidential Majority (MP), Aubin Minaku, claims that the opposition candidate, Etienne Tshisekedi and his party, the UDSP, are “creating a climate of insurgency.” When asked about the possibility of a victory for the leader of the UDSP, Minaku Aubin said he does not believe it for one second, “but it would be the best proof that the elections are transparent,” he added. According to him, Joseph Kabila’s victory is certain. When asked about the possibility of the results being challenged, Mr. Minaku also gave a stern warning: “Whoever commits an offence, even if it were Etienne Tshisekedi himself, will be punished to the full extent of the law.”

Faced with the confusion brought about by the release of partial results and trends from different camps, the presidential candidate of the Union for the Congolese Nation (UNC), Vital Kamerhe, requested that the INEC gradually release the results of the presidential election, in order to dispel suspicions and create a peaceful climate before the final results are released.

On December 30, the Vice-President of the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), Jacques Djol, asked observers, journalists and party observers to be alert during vote-counting for the presidential and legislative elections. He said this would deter any possible manipulation that aims to create post-electoral tensions.

He also asked the public to remain vigilant, in order to make sure that “the ballots cast are the very same ones that are counted and declared.” Jacques Djoli also asked election officials to make sure that “the people are given the true results.”

On November 30, the President of the High Authority of Audiovisual Communication (HACA), Jean-Bosco Bahala, discouraged Congolese and international media from publishing partial results of the presidential and legislative elections ahead of the INEC, in keeping with Congolese law currently in force.

On December 1, the UDSP claimed that its candidate, Etienne Tshisekedi, was the winner in the presidential election. During a press conference held in Kinshasa, the party’s Secretary General, Jacquemain Shabani said, “The UDPS confirms its lead and victory, because the results obtained from various statements of results collected throughout the country declare him the winner, with a comfortable margin that cannot be denied- and any catching-up would be impossible despite the fraud perpetrated. With this victory, the UDSP- which is now focusing on the transfer of power- reassures its members that it will be open to dialogue and will oppose all vindictive acts or manhunts organized against the losers. Shabani warned those currently in power against « all current manoeuvring and attempts to oppose public opinion, and the taking away of victory from the Congolese people to serve their own purposes with their plans to grab power through large-scale, bloody repression. » He also pointed out that « the DRC cannot afford further destabilization or the mourning of further deaths. » He finally appealed to the INEC to respect the will of the sovereign nation when the tentative results of the presidential and legislative elections are released on November 28. “The polls have spoken and it is now up to the INEC to make it official,” said Jacquemin Shabani, for whom respect of the will of the sovereign nation is crucial. Jacquemin Shabani asked that the Congolese people respect democracy, where “the rule of the majority and fair-play” are paramount.

In a message addressed to the members of his party on December 1, the Secretary General of the People’s Party for Reconstruction and Democracy (PPRD), Evariste Boshab, criticized the recent circulation of figures pertaining to the presidential elections on November 28: “We condemn the circulation of statistics that have no basis and are contrary to legal and ethical standards. Only the INEC can publish the election results. »

On December 2, the rapporteur of the INEC, Matthew Mpita, banned media from publishing trends on the results of presidential and legislative elections without the consent of the INEC. As it happens, many Congolese people and press have started to publish trends that favour a certain candidate, announcing the victory of candidate Joseph Kabila, or that of Mr. Etienne Tshisekedi. Text messages and unsigned papers were being circulated in the city of Kinshasa. These trends have increased tension among the population.

HRW condemns pre-election violence

In an official statement made by the NGO, Human Rights Watch (HRW), on December 2, , it was confirmed that at least 18 civilians were killed and hundreds seriously injured- mostly by security forces- between November 26 and 28, on the eve of the presidential and legislative elections. According to HRW, most of the victims- 14 in the capital Kinshasa alone- were killed “by soldiers of the Republican Guard,” the former presidential guard. “The government (DRC) must take immediate control of its security forces- particularly the Presidential Guard- and prevent political opponents and their supporters from being targeted,” said the NGO, fearing further violence and disorder when the tentative results of the presidential elections are released on Dec. 6. “Tensions are very high, particularly due to logistical problems during the planning of elections. Security forces should protect the people and not stir up violence,” said Anneke Van Woudenberg, Senior Analyst at Human Rights Watch Africa.

Following accusations made by the HRW, the Congolese government sought the intervention of the military justice system to open an investigation and file a complaint against X. This was announced by its spokesman, Lambert Mende, who is also Minister of Communications.

2. GRADUAL RELEASE OF TENTATIVE RESULTS OF THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS

The Electoral Commission begins gradually releasing results

On December 2, the INEC began releasing partial results of the presidential elections. The INEC claims that the reason it pushed back the release of the initial results by four days after originally scheduled was in response to “rumours that were being spread on the Internet by unauthorized persons.” “We had to do something,” said the rapporteur of the INEC, Matthew Mpita. The INEC made this decision following the hacking of its website, in which a complete picture of the presidential election results was published, giving numbers and percentages representing the results for all eleven candidates, and where Tshisekedi was given a big lead.

Matthew Mpita stressed that the figures published by the INEC are not representative of the total results, but only figures by province.

The published figures represent 9,746 (15.6%) of the 63,835 polling stations. The percentage of polling stations is different for each province (0.02% to in Kinshasa and 44.71% in Lower Congo). According to figures provided by the chairman of INEC, Daniel Ngoy Mulunda, Kabila ranks at the top in the provinces of Katanga, Bandundu, Maniema, Oriental Province and South Kivu, regions that are traditionally pro-government. Tshisekedi leads in Lower Congo and in West and East Kasai. The Senate President and opposition candidate, Leon Kengo, leads in the Equateur Province, and the former rebel leader, Antipas Mbusa Nyamwisi, leads in North Kivu, his hometown. According to the INEC breakdown, which was arrived at by adding up the votes of the province, Joseph Kabila has about 52% of the votes so far; Etienne Tshisekedi has about 34%, Vital Kamerhe has about 4.5%, and Léon Kengo has nearly 3% .Mobutu and Mbusa each have about 2%.

However, these partial results do not account for Kinshasa, a city of 3.3 million voters, largely pro-Tshisekedi.

In Katanga -a region traditionally favourable to incumbent President Kabila, with the largest number of registered voters (4.6 million) – INEC has given the results for 27% of polling stations. In Kinshasa (which has about 3.3 million registered voters) – a province which is leaning toward opposition candidate Etienne Tshisekedi- the partial results cover only 0.02% of polling stations. It is therefore not surprising at this stage to see Kabila leading with 52% of the vote, ahead of Tshisekedi, who has 34%. Only one thing is certain: the two rivals are significantly ahead of the other nine candidates.

“It’s irresponsible. It’s a provocation. We can only criticize the figures given by the INEC, » said Jacquemin Shabani, Secretary General of UDPS, Tshisekedi’s party.

“Why only 0.02% of polling stations in Kinshasa, when we are aware- and we have witnesses- that results in 90% of the voting centres are known?”, he asked.

On December 3, INEC issued its second publication of partial results of the presidential elections. The figures released account for only 21,265 polling stations, 33.30% of the approximately 64,000. Kabila obtained 3,275,125 votes (51%) and Tshisekedi 2,233,447 votes (34%).

According to these results, Kabila leads in six provinces (Bandundu, Katanga, Maniema, Oriental Province, North and South Kivu), and Tshisekedi leads in five others (Lower Congo, the Equateur Province, West and East Kasai, and Kinshasa).

However, the percentage of polling stations where results are tabulated varies by province.

55% are in Katanga, a region that is pro-Kabila and where he obtained 1.4 million votes against Tshisekedi’s 141,616. On the other hand, the percentage of votes is only 3.33% in Kinshasa (3.3 million voters), where Tshisekedi is popular and therefore commands a high voting intention.

On December 4, the INEC issued its third publication of the partial results of the presidential election. The figures account for 33,792 polling stations (52.91% of the total). Kabila obtained 4,942,050 votes (49%) and Tshisekedi 3,402,650 votes (34%).

President Kabila is ahead in six provinces (Bandundu, Katanga, Maniema, Oriental Province, North and South Kivu), and Tshisekedi leads in 4 others (Lower Cogno, West and East Kasai, and Kinshasa). The Senate President and opposition candidate, Leon Kengo, leads in the Equateur Province, with a total of 4% of votes in 11 provinces, just behind the former president of the National Assembly Vital Kamerhe, who is 3rd with 7% of votes. In Kinshasa (27.44% polling stations), Tshisekedi obtained 393,617 votes, against 174,032 for Kabila. The latter got 1,862,315 votes in Katanga (southeast) (72.42% of stations) and Tshisekedi got 189,054 votes.

The INEC President, Daniel Ngoyi Mulunda, promised to give detailed results by polling station when the full tentative results are released.

On December 5, the INEC issued its fourth publication of partial results of the presidential election. The incumbent President, Joseph Kabila, was ahead of opposition candidate, Etienne Tshisekedi, by nearly 1.3 million votes. Of 67.65% polling stations accounted for, Kabila obtained 5,882,269 votes (46.4%) and Tshisekedi 4,591,000 votes (36.2%). In Kinshasa (71.23% polling stations), Tshisekedi obtained 1,031,493 votes, against 472,433 for Kabila.

Originally scheduled for Tuesday, Dec. 6, the announcement of the full results of the presidential elections could be postponed by the Electoral Commission (INEC). “We will first make sure that all the statements of results have arrived and that we have all the information. Otherwise, we will only be able to give a partial report,” warned the INEC’s chairman, Pastor Daniel Mulunda.

On December 6, the INEC announced that the full tentative results of the presidential election, originally scheduled for that day, would be postponed for a maximum of 48 hours. This postponement is justified “for purposes of transparency and compliance with electoral procedures,” said a signed statement by the rapporteur of the INEC, Matthew Mpita, who explained, “We do not have all the official results of the 169 CLCR’s,” the local centres where results are tabulated, “which is why we had to push back the release of the overall tentative results. In keeping with the law, we must have all the statements of results in our possession. »

On December 6 the INEC issued its fifth publication of the partial results of the presidential election. Tabulated results in 89.28% of polling stations show that Kabila obtained over 8.3 million votes (nearly 49%), and Tshisekedi 5.7 million (33.2%). In Kinshasa (80.45% of polling stations), Tshisekedi obtained 1,157,935 votes against 541,970 for Kabila. Of nearly 17 million votes tabulated, the incumbent President is now in the lead with over 2, 6 million votes over the leader of the UDSP. On the evening of December 5, the margin separating the two principal rivals in the election was two times lower.

Reactions from candidates and political parties

In his first public statement since the very first announcement of the preliminary results, Tshisekedi immediately rejected the results, saying: “Not only does the UDPS (Union for Democracy and Social Progress), Tshisekedi’s party, reject these results, we also strongly recommend that Mulunda Ngoy (the chairman of the INEC) and (President Joseph) Kabila respect the will of the Congolese people when the results are released. If they don’t do this, they (Mulunda and Kabila) will be committing suicidal acts.” Tshisekedi also called on the Congolese people to “remain vigilant” and said that, “if necessary” it will call for a strike, although he didn’t go into further details.

In a joint statement presented by the candidate, Vital Kamerhe, former president of the National Assembly, “the Congolese Political Opposition”, whose members include the UDPS and the party of the Senate President, Leon Kengo- another presidential candidate- has rejected “any partial result” and considers it “void.” The entire political opposition confirmed Etienne Tshisekedi as the winner of the presidential election and called on the international community to make it clear to President Kabila, “that he must accept this result before it’s too late, in order to avoid making the Congolese people suffer. Opposition candidates, who shirk the idea of any coalition government with President Kabila, are also calling for African intervention to prevent further violence.

The fifteen members of the Security Council of the UN insisted that all candidates work to maintain a peaceful and calm environment, restrain themselves, and just wait for the results. »

On December 5, the eve of the release of the tentative results by the INEC, the climate became more and more worrisome. There were confrontations between demonstrators and the police in several cities. The police used tear gas to disperse protesters in Kinshasa, where police detachments were deployed in each of the hot spots of the capital. Business was slow in markets, boutiques, shops, and banks.

Some schools asked students to stay home. Thousands of people left the city to go to Brazzaville; a curfew was declared in Mbuji-Mayi, the capital of East Kasai and stronghold of Etienne Tshisekedi; the Republican Guard was deployed in Lubumbashi, the provincial capital of Katanga. Bishop Nicolas Djombo, president of the Cenco, said that “what we are seeing is a high speed train heading straight into a wall.” The NGO, International Crisis Group, issued an alert bulletin for the DRC, classifying it under « potential conflict. »

On December 5, Etienne Tshisekedi and Joseph Kabila promised to respect the electoral results and to use peaceful means to resolve any electoral disputes. The head of MONUSCO (United Nations Mission for Stability in the DRC) confirmed this after separate meetings with each of the two presidential candidates.

The camp of incumbent president Joseph Kabila and that of his main presidential rival, Etienne Tshisekedi, approved the decision made by INEC to postpone the release of the full tentative results of the elections on December 6 by « 48 hours. »

Minaku Aubin, Secretary General of the Presidential Majority believes that this extension will make it possible for the INEC to respect “the imperative that is the credibility of the electoral process.” Aubin Minaku does not fear a legal void in the country’s leadership beyond December 6- the constitutional date on which the tenure of the current president ends- saying the matter is already settled in the Congolese constitution which stipulates that « the incumbent President of the Republic shall remain in command until power is handed over to the new president-elect. »

For its part, the UDSP, Etienne Tshisekedi’s party, is not at all surprised by this report. The opposition candidate, Tshisekedi, was consulted on this issue during a meeting on Monday at his home, with the head of the UN Mission in the DRC and the ambassadors of Russia- which chairs the Security Council- and Gabon, said Albert Moleka, its spokesman.

“INEC’s request for a postponement has been sent. President Tshisekedi immediately said he didn’t see why it couldn’t be done, as long as it aims to give the process full transparency, especially in the declaration of the results, » said Albert Moleka, adding that his party has no problem with December 6. “Mr. Tshisekedi has always given priority to what the people want; and what the people want, after December 6, is to know the true results of the polls. The Congolese people can wait more than two days to know the results of the polls, as long as they are not results concocted by a service provider, » he said.

Calls of civil society

On December 3, the NGO Platform on Human Rights, Citizen Coordination of Congolese Missions for the Observation of Elections asked the INEC to identify polling stations where results of the presidential election are published. The spokesperson of the platform, Bishop Abraham Djamba, announced this during a press conference, stressing that this will allow candidates “to verify the authenticity of the results published in connection with the statements of the results of the counting process, which the INEC was required to provide to its watchers. »

In a joint statement made in Goma, twelve religious denominations in North Kivu called on all political party activists to respect the results of presidential and legislative elections published by the INEC, and not to let themselves be manipulated, in order to avoid post-election conflicts.

On December 4, in an appeal made in the face of the country’s current situation, the Standing Committee of the National Conference of Bishops (CENCO) urged the Congolese people, politicians and the INEC to stick unconditionally to the truth of the vote, as expressed and revealed in the polling stations. To ensure peace and credibility of the results, as stipulated in Article 63 of the electoral law, the partial publication should include the number of registered voters, voter turnout, void ballots, and votes cast for each candidate. The CENCO requested that those involved in cases of proven fraud be severely punished, and that just compensation be required from the perpetrators.

The CENCO has asked that whoever ends up winning the election, as reflected truthfully in the polls, avoid flouting victory.

To whoever loses, the CENCO recommends that lessons be learned from failure. Accepting the verdict of the polls is an eloquent sign of patriotism. In the event that there is a desire to contest the results, they should resort to legal means to settle electoral disputes.

Once again, the CENCO is calling on the Congolese people to maintain peace and calm Any recourse to violence must be avoided. Political choices should not, under any circumstance, be a ground for enmity and antagonism. Its basic premise is respect for one another to achieve a peaceful coexistence. With this in mind, the CENCO urges the Congolese people to remember how much the country has regressed as a result of a lack of restraint in the past, the provoking of violence, looting, and the destruction of infrastructure- consequences of which we continue to endure today.

The CENCO reminded the Army and National Police that they must remain apolitical and Republican. By being neutral and patriotic, they must completely avoid all forms of violence and abuse by the use of force.

The suspension of communication by texts

On December 2, the diffusion of text messages by phone operators in Kinshasa was suspended “until further notice,” on the orders of Interior Minister, Adolphe Lumanu, to prevent the dissemination of “false results” and preserve public order. The National Network of NGOs on Human Rights (RENADHOC) immediately denounced the suppression of a guaranteed right by the Constitution and international instruments ratified by the DRC. The Executive Secretary of RENADHOC, Fernandez Murhola, requested that this measure be lifted by the Government.

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This English translation has been possible thanks to the project Mondo Lingua: Free translation of websites for NGOs and non-profit-making organisations. A project managed by Mondo Services. Translator: Margarita Teodoro