Summary

EDITORIAL

ELECTORAL PROCESS

Audit of electoral documents

Registration of voters

Provisional list of candidates for the legislative elections

Final list of 11 candidates for the presidential election

Final list of candidates for the national assembly election

Logistical problems

Pre-electoral tensions

Declarations of the Civil Society

Towards decoupling of the presidential and legislative elections?

Electoral issues in the east

 

EDITORIAL

Despite assurances from Pastor Daniel Ngoy Mulunda, president of the National Independent Electoral Commission (CENI), that the presidential and parliamentary elections would take place on November 28th, many observers remain sceptical and there are national and international demands for concrete actions to be taken, according to the Kinshasa press. The presidential election, for which candidates are already known, does not appear to pose a problem.

However, the acute problem arises in the national assembly election.

CENI released the final list of candidates for the national assembly election on October 14th, while it had to do so on September 27th according to the initial calendar. However, according to the timeline of CENI, these lists should have been made known to the public thirty days before the start of electoral campaign which runs from October 28th to November 26th. This would allow candidates and political parties to carry out printing of placards and other campaign posters.

This is a worrying sign, all the more so as CENI shifts responsibility for the delay to the Supreme Court of Justice (CSJ) that had to end the review of electoral litigations. Indeed, CSJ found it impossible to deal promptly with all submitted documents, especially with the small workforce of magistrates appointed to this task.

The hasty submission of the list of nearly 20,000 candidates by CENI to CSJ created a considerable problem, despite the apparent calmness shown by the latter. These candidates, each avid for and none of whom would like to fail to gain power in one of the five hundred seats of the National Assembly, had files which could have been riddled with so many irregularities. Some indiscreet remarks made revealed that many candidates had problematic files duly and strategically submitted at the eleventh hour at the Office of Reception and Processing of Candidacies (BRTC) whilst there was no craze in the beginning. This is a problem.

Secondly, it is based on this final list of candidates that CENI is going to place orders for ballot papers and subsequently deploy them to the 169 electoral constituencies in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). Unless proven otherwise, South Africa was to be responsible for the ballot papers, but a real problem arises as this ballot paper could be the largest in the world.

The third point concerns the manufacture of ballot-boxes. Germany was at first responsible for it, but the Germans, too defensive of their weekends, refuse to work on Saturdays and Sundays with the lack of time at the last minute. Given this situation, CENI turned towards the Chinese who agreed to manufacture the ballot-boxes around the clock.

For DRC, logistics most not be neglected in a country four times larger than France and eighty times that of Belgium. CENI, even with the support of the United Nations Organization Stabilization Mission in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (MONUSCO), will need to practically allocate the necessary time for deploying all electoral materials throughout DRC.

What will happen if these challenges are not tackled? Is CENI going to decouple the elections, i.e., organise only the presidential election and leave the legislative elections to a later date? These questions remain relevant as the current legislature comes to the end of its term on December 6th 2011, as with the mandate of the President of DRC.

Under these circumstances, there are three alternatives: either the High Court despatches the lists for a joint poll on the big day, at the risk of the nation; or the Pastor decouples the elections with all the consequences it entails; or nothing takes place on November 28th.

What is going to happen if the elections are not organised on November 28th 2011? From a legal standpoint, it will not pose any problem. President Joseph Kabila remains in office until the newly elected president of DRC is sworn in.

However, the real problem will arise on the grounds of legitimacy. If the joint elections were not held on November 28th and RDC did not have president democratically elected on this date, the basis on which the incumbent president will engage the Congolese would not be known, since the ruling institutions, in particular, the National Assembly, no longer exist. The situation could exacerbate if this difficulty is not addressed adroitly.

1. ELECTORAL PROCESS

Audit of electoral documents

 

During a meeting between CENI and representatives of the opposition in Kinshasa on September 19th, Pastor Ngoy Mulunda agreed to the presence of five delegates each from the opposition and Presidential Majority (MP) for the audit of electoral files, in view of the adequate audit. The president of CENI requested for the delegates to be experts in information technology since the concern is a technical one. He reiterated to an audience trusting of only African diplomats accredited in DRC that access to the central server would only be granted if MP also appointed its delegates. Otherwise, there will be no access to the central server. The position of the MP is well known in this respect. It never raised such a precondition and, therefore, continues to consider it unnecessary.

CENI also indicated that it was going to publish the lists of 32 million voters by electoral constituencies and 62,000 polling stations spread out across the country at the end of September .

Registration of voters

The registration of voters gives rise to some surprises, according to some observers. Within five years, the number of voters registered on the electoral lists surpassed 25.7 million to reach 32 million, a rise which is 25% more than that in the population growth. More surprisingly, the provinces with the largest increases are mainly those known to be in favour of the outgoing president, Joseph Kabila: North Kivu (+ 22%), South Kivu (+ 21.5%), Maniema (+39%), Katanga (+ 31.5%), Province-Orientale (+ 19.5%). The increase of voters in the province of Kinshasa, considered to be hostile towards the incumbent president, is only 11%.

The newspaper Le Potentiel revealed that, according to a report circulated illicitly in Kinshasa, millions of names registered in the electoral files were fake voters. The report is a confidential document prepared at the beginning of August by ZETES, the Belgium company contracted by the Congolese government to manufacture biometric voter cards. ZETES had carried out a preliminary technical examination of the database containing the list of voters to verify the number of duplicates it could contain, i.e., the number of voters appearing more than once in the system. The examination by ZETES revealed a significant number of duplicates in the following proportions: Bandundu: 278,039 or nearly 13.68% of voters in this province, Equateur: 201,543 or 12.69% of voters, Province-Orientale: 198,881 or 5.47% of voters, Kinshasa: 22,466 or 0.87% of voters.

These numbers are significantly larger than the number of only 119,000 duplicates recently announced by the president of CENI, Daniel Ngoy Mulunda. Binary or real duplicates are most worrying. These would be made up of multiple entries in the database with identical photos and fingerprints but with one piece of information that differs, usually at the moment of registration marked by the timestamp. According to the report by ZETES, the presence of this type of duplicates “causes one to think that direct manipulation was performed on the electoral database”. Thus, the binary duplicates are clearly created with fraudulent intentions.

The report by ZETES calculated that a pursuit of all duplicates in the electoral files would take time and last until October. If this had been done, the elections planned for November 28th would have had been postponed.

Even if all fake voters were results of technical errors, their presence has at least distorted the representation of some electoral constituencies. As the electoral files were not audited before the legal vote on the repartition of seats in parliament as many senators had demanded, the population of Kinshasa and other constituencies with lesser duplicates registered could be under-represented in parliament. Yet, when contacted by diplomats and journalists, the electoral division of MONUSCO and the firm ZETES both affirmed that these problems are technical and are not of major concern. The confidential document surfaces inopportunely for Kinshasa as several irregularities were pointed out during summer, notably the registration of minors or individuals of foreign nationalities on the electoral lists. The Association for Promotion of Democracy and Development of the Democratic Republic of the Congo (APRODEC), a non-profit organisation, invites both CENI and ZETES to publish the confidential report spontaneously .

On October 3rd, the firm ZETES responded to the article published by Le Potentiel 5343 on September 30th 2011.

“Firstly, the title of the article, though formulated in conditional tense, intimates proven fraud in the same manner through which the local press presents a hypothesis as a fait accompli without due consideration for the extent of work done.

As partner of CENI, the firm ZETES participates in a collaborative effort to obtain the best possible audited information for the upcoming elections. ZETES furnishes CENI with as much information as possible for an audit that leads to accurate electoral documents. The information are analysed and consolidated by CENI to obtain the final report on the question of duplicates. There is no report contradicting the official one made public by CENI, the only depository of conclusive information. One must be reminded that a complex operation of this scale always leads to a host of problems that are resolved in majority of the cases. ZETES regrets the leak of information as it was never consulted or given an opportunity to express its views at any point in time before the incorrect use of these citations in different press organs.

According to ZETES, it is impossible to organise the fraud at the level of database management system for different reasons:

– It is impossible to create or erase information archived in the database without parties participating in the operation realising it and there are usually many such parties involved.

– All transactions in the database from the ground to the central system are recorded. At any time, it is thus possible to track all types of changes made (date and time, nature and author of the change…).

– A high estimate on the number of real duplicates (not to be compared against duplicates from the raw data of the AFIS system, a fingerprint verification system) is 0.5% of the total population. 90% of these duplicates are cases of people obtaining a second card for aesthetic purposes (the photo is not “pretty”, there is an error in the name, or simply having a second card for convenience).

– The nature of a duplicate is complex. In the case where all “real duplicates” are fraudulent, which never happens, the number of registered cases that should not be taken into account appears to be 0.25% lesser (with a duplicate being a match of at least 2 persons). Even if the number were tripled, it would not affect the outcome of the ballot.

According to ZETES, solutions for computerised centralisation are in place to ensure credibility of the process while offering the possibility of reducing the margins of error. Consequently, ZETES successively transmitted non-exhaustive partial information that contributed to the correction of inevitable errors. The numbers mentioned in the press are of two completely different natures. The comparison of raw data with conclusive information from which technical errors have been removed hardly makes any sense.

ZETES affirms that fraud cannot occur at the level of centralised systems due to the excessively complicated and irreversibly visible nature of such operations”.

Provisional list of candidates for the legislative elections

On September 22nd, CENI announced the provisional list of candidates for the legislative elections. 19,497 candidates are nominated for 500 seats in the National Assembly (a record as compared to 9,632 candidates registered in 2006). CENI has disposal of 169 electoral constituencies and 62,000 polling stations in the entire nation .

Looking more closely at the candidatures, one perceives a new redistribution of cards in the Congolese opposition. Jason Sterns draws up a list of the number of candidates nominated by each party in his blog, Congo Siasa: the Movement for the Liberation of Congo (MLC) of Jean-Pierre Bemba: 237 candidates, the People’s Party for Reconstruction and Democracy (PPRD) of Joseph Kabila: 545, the Union for Democracy and Social Progress (UDPS) of Etienne Tshisekedi: 377, the Union of Forces of Change (UFC) de Léon Kengo: 334 and the Union for the Congolese Nation (UNC) of Vital Kamerhe: 450. Some information is absent from this account. Firstly, the decline of MLC, the largest opposition party beset with internal struggles and the absence of its leader at the presidential elections (Jean-Pierre Bemba is in prison at La Haye). MLC risks losing much in this election, notably its status as the leading opposition party. Two other parties attempt to take its place: UDPS of Etienne Tshisekedi, absent in 2006 due to its boycott, and the new UNC of Vital Kamerhe, established less than a year and omnipresent with its 450 candidates. Jason Sterns notes that UNC succeeded in presenting its candidates in more than 85% of the seats. With 377 candidates, UDPS is less represented but, from the point of view of Jason Sterns, this conveys its meticulous strategy of putting forward candidates for seats that they are sure of winning. As for the presidential party, PPRD, it lines up the largest number of candidatures (545) and thus hopes to achieve a comfortable majority in the National Assembly. However, with 19,497 candidates running for 500 seats, Joseph Kabila runs a risk of being elected by a narrow margin at the presidential election and not having a stable majority in the National Assembly – a real risk when one knows that the Prime Minister who will be appointed after the presidential election will need to be part of the “majority” in the National Assembly… a majority that could be very “heterogeneous”.

The following table shows candidates from the five major parties in the eleven provinces:

 

	MLC (Bemba)	MLC (Bemba)	UDPS (Tshisekedi)	UFC (Kengo)	UNC (Kamerhe)	TOT.
Bas Co.	15	23	21	21	22	102
Band.	41	51	34	43	50	219
Equat.	51	54	36	41	45	227
Kas. Oc.	7	41	41	32	40	161
Kas. Or.	4	42	41	30	35	152
Kat.	6	86	46	36	64	238
Kin.	49	55	51	47	50	252
Man.	9	14	7	3	14	47
Pr. Or.	22	102	31	44	55	254
N. Ki	22	45	37	27	43	174
S. Ki	11	32	32	10	32	117
TOTALE	237	545	377	334	450	1943

On September 25th, CENI closed the receipt of complaints on the candidates for the legislative elections. Some political parties put forward more candidates that the number of seats in the constituency, which is a violation of Paragraph 2 of Article 22 of the electoral law stipulating that a list put forward by a political party or group is declared inadmissible when it has a higher number of candidates than seats for each constituency.

For example, PPRD put forward sixteen candidates in the constituency of Tshangu in Kinshasa while there are only fifteen seats. Also in Kinshasa, PPRD gave a list of fifteen candidates for thirteen seats in the constituency of Lukunga, four candidates for three seats in Kipushi and ten candidates for five seats in Kisangani.

In Masimanimba of the province of Bandundu, UNC and the Regrouping of Innovators of Congo (RENOVAC) gave a list of nine and thirteen candidates respectively while there are only six seats.

In addition, on the lists published by CENI, it appears that UDPS/Tshisekedi would have put forward six candidates for four seats in the constituency of Moba in Kinshasa.

Some candidates were disqualified for having enrolled on behalf of several political parties.

The rapporteur for CENI, Matthieu Pita, affirmed that “the lists of candidates are still provisional lists that are like to contain omission, technical or typographical errors”.

He reassured that verification is beginning together with the candidates and political parties at BRTC. There seems to be only one explanation for the craze and even determination of several individuals amongst those eligible for office to represent: the political office pays well in DRC. It attracts everyone – doctors, engineers, teachers of all levels and peasants, but there is complete mobilisation of churches and non-governmental organisations (NGOs) to lead voters in making a judicious choice.

Final list of 11 candidates for the presidential election

On September 26th, CENI released the final list of eleven candidates running for the presidential election:

1. Jean ANDEKA DJAMBA (Alliance of Congolese Nationalist Believers)
2. Adam BOMBOLE INTOLE (independent)
3. Joseph KABILA KABANGE (independent)
4. François-Nicéphore KAKESE MALELA (Union for the Revival and Development of Congo)
5. Vital KAMERHE LWA-KANYIGINYI (Union for the Congolese Nation)
6. Oscar KASHALA LUKUMUENA (Union for the Reconstruction of Congo)
7. Léon KENGO WA DONDO (Union of Forces of Change)
8. Antipas MBUSA NYAMWISI (independent)
9. François-Joseph MOBUTU NZANGA NGBANGAWE (Union of Mobutist Democrats)
10. Josué-Alex MUKENDI KAMAMA (independent)
11. Etienne TSHISEKEDI WA MULUMBA (Union for Democracy and Social Progress).

On October 8th, about fifty political parties and associations supporting the candidature of Kengo wa Dondo in the presidential election of November 28th regrouped on a platform named “Reunited Opposition Forces in Congo (Foreco)” and signed the memorandum of association in Kinshasa. One witnesses henceforth the coexistence of three types of groupings in the opposition, namely, “DTP” (Dynamic President Tshisekedi), “AVK” (Alternative Power Vital Kamerhe) and “Foreco” (Reunited Forces of the Opposition in Congo).

Final list of candidates for the national assembly election

 

On the late afternoon of October 14th, CENI released the final list of candidates for the national assembly election. According to CENI, the delay could be explained by the verdict of electoral disputes examined by CSJ.

18,386 out of the 19,497 candidatures received are accepted for the national parliamentary elections or 1,111 candidatures are invalidated by CSJ. Several causes are pointed out, notably material errors in the applications.

There are 2,209 women out of 18,386 candidates. The Dungu constituency in the Orientale province received the least number of candidates of four for one seat, according to the rapporteur of CENI, while the Tshangu constituency in the city province of Kinshasa recorded the largest number of candidates of 1,548 contesting for 15 seats.

On the province level, the city province of Kinshasa recorded 5,351 candidates for 51 seats. On the other hand, the Maniema province recorded the least number of candidates of 324 for 14 seats.

Planned for September 27th, the publication of these candidatures took place more than two weeks later. However, Pasteur Daniel Ngoyi Mulunda reassured that the delay in publication of this final list does not interfere with the electoral calendar in any way. Mulunda reassured that “There are no consequences on the schedule simply because this publication took place in the period planned for the settlement of electoral disputes”. In respect of ballot-boxes that were supposed to come from Germany, the president of CENI made known that they will soon be delivered to the country from China, in order for the presidential and legislative elections to be held jointly on November 28th. The same assurances were given with regards to ballot papers.

Logistical Problems

Despite the declarations of CENI in respect of the plethoric number of candidates, it is evident that the size and printing of the ballot papers remain undoubtedly a puzzle for CENI. Indeed, on the ballot papers, it will be necessary to place the photos and names of candidates, the logos and names of parties and the box for ticking. In a constituency of Kinshasa, for example, there are 1,489 candidates. It will then be necessary to place 1,489 photos, party logos, party names, candidate names and the boxes for ticking on one ballot paper, obviously on several pages. After having ticked the box, the voter will have to fold this large ballot into four before dropping it into the ballot-box, which will also be much bigger than normal. According to an expert at CENI, these ballot papers will be printed in A2 format. “This format is four times the size of a standard sheet of paper and its size is 42 by 60 centimetres”, he added.

About the ordering of ballot-boxes, Matthieu Mpita, rapporteur of CENI, informed that, in view of the tight electoral calendar, a German firm that was supposed to manufacture the ballot-boxes declined the offer. This is for the good and simple reason that the German legislation not only forbids working day and night, but also on weekends. Thus, this German firm had given up the deal to its subsidiary in China, which is capable of producing the ballot-boxes by working around the clock.

On October 7th, the rapporteur of CENI, Matthieu Mpita, reassured that “no technical or political obstacle can prevent [CENI from] organising the presidential and legislative elections on November 28th 2011”. He indicated that out of 786 tonnes of electoral kits expected for the voting and counting stations, 590 were already received and are going to be deployed to the level of territories. With regards to the polling booths, out of 924 tonnes expected, 507 were received and deployed also to the level of territories. In addition, he declared that CENI deployed 172 delegates across provinces in search of sites for installation of the 62,000 voting and counting stations planned. This work will lead to the precise determination of the sites of voting and counting stations in the country. This is the cartography of the voting and counting stations.

Pre-electoral tensions

On September 27th, the government and opposition accused each other of arming militias to disrupt the upcoming elections. In a press conference held at the office of UDPS in Limete, the secretary-general of UDPS, Jacquemain Shabani Lukoo, denounced the increasing insecurity that he attributes to the ruling power. Speaking of repetitive escapes from the country’s prisons, such as those in Katanga, Kasai and North Kivu, Jacquemain Shabani views them as a deliberate set-up to disrupt the electoral process (the electoral campaign and, at the end of the day, the elections themselves).

During a meeting with the press at Venus Hotel of Kinshasa, the secretary-general of MP, Aubin Minaku, maintained that “a certain opposition, instead of preparing its activists for the elections, is putting in place a strategy of fierce opposition comprising vague insurrectionary desires and preparing militias in order to prevent the elections from being held on the coming November 28th 2011”.

On September 29th, units of the security service of the Mobile Intervention Group (GMI) dispersed marches of activists of UDPS and PPRD.

The activists of UDPS planned to go to the headquarters of CENI to ask for more transparency in the electoral process and the start of the audit of electoral files. Activists of PPRD planned to submit a memorandum to the headquarters of UDPS to ask its leaders to get involved for a calm electoral process.

The chief of police in Kinshasa, General Jean de Dieu Oleko, said that local authorities allowed the march of UDPS at first, before asking [UDPS] to postpone it to another day which the party did not accept.

The secretary-general of UDPS, Jacquemain Shabani, accused members of the league of youths of PPRD (in power) of “attacking” the demonstrators “with stones and bottles”.

The president of the league of youths of PPRD, Francis Kalombo, said that “It was the activists of UDPS who attacked first” and “the activists of PPRD only defended themselves”. Francis Kalombo also assured that the town hall was also aware of their demonstration.

On October 6th, UDPS organised another march demanding transparency from CENI in the electoral process. The Congolese police intervened from the start to disperse the protesters. The confrontation was short, with gunshots and teargas against the throwing of stones. The letter from the town mayor forbidding the march, received by UDPS on the previous day, was considered by its secretary-general, Jacquemain Shabani, to be discriminatory and thus impossible to be executed. According to UDPS, a female shop assistant was shot dead.

On October 13th, the police dispersed the rally of UDPS activists organised at Place de la Poste in the commune of Gombe in Kinshasa using truncheons and teargas. Four people were injured and three activists arrested. The secretary-general of UDPS, Jacquemain Shabani, declared that the police ill-treated, arrested and gave beatings to activists of his party. He deplored this suppression and blamed the government for political intolerance. He explained that his party demonstrated to demand transparency and fairness in the electoral process and denounce political intolerance and violations of rights and liberties of citizens. In addition, Jacquemain Shabani announced that UDPS was going to maintain pressure on CENI until audit of the electoral files and cartography of the polling stations are obtained.

Declarations of the Civil Society

On October 12th at Kinshasa, the Collective Non-Governmental Organisations for the Defence of Human Rights (ONGDH) in DRC held a press conference for political analysis of the country during this pre-electoral period.

After having recalled the ratification and support by DRC in international texts guaranteeing the rights to freedom of thought, awareness, religion, opinion, expression, congregation and public demonstrations, ONGDH stated that the Constitution of DRC institutes a system of information and non-authorisation in respect of freedom of demonstration.

Unfortunately, ONGDH notes that, instead of consulting constitutional measures promoting democracy, the leaders of DRC refer inappropriately to government decree 196 of January 29th 1999, laying down a system of prior authorisation of the politico-administrative authority as regards congregations and public demonstrations.

As an illustration, the representatives of ONGDH stated: “This is often observed when the opposition parties want to demonstrate to demand legitimate rights, notably transparency of the electoral process. Often, their demonstrations are brutally and violently suppressed by the national Congolese police on the grounds that they were not authorised.”

Worried, ONGDH points out that political parties are recruiting young people practising martial arts who openly act as militia in the presence of the country’s authorities. Curiously, these “athletic young people” are most recruited in the political parties in power, he added.

On this topic, ONGDH points out that, recently, when an opposition party wants to demonstrate in public, the parties in power rapidly mobilised these young people, sometimes armed with bladed weapons, to counter the demonstration. Such was the case at Kinshasa, Lubumbashi and Mbujimayi. In its analysis, ONGDH states to have understood that the power of DRC wants to create obsessive fear in the population and a climate of terror in order to stop democratic demands in this electoral period, even in the case of electoral frauds.

Further to these denounced facts, ONGDH recommends, amongst others, Congolese youths to rally to watch over electoral frauds and not follow ill-intentioned politicians who seek to create trouble at all costs to either come to or remain in power.

On October 12th, hundreds of women, members of the Dynamics of Women for Changes (DYFAC), marched on the roads of the city of Kinshasa to demand political parties not to use sporting youths in electoral demonstrations and for reassurance and transparency of the electoral process.

Towards the decoupling of the presidential and legislative elections?

 

On October 12th, Félix-Marie Kasongo Niembo, vice-president of the Union of Democrats for National Harmony (UDCN), a party of MP, declared that “decoupling of the 2011 presidential and legislative elections can not, in any case, act as an impediment to the smooth execution of the polls”. This is undoubtedly a trial balloon, an implicit “opinion poll”, launched by the MP to test the water on the decoupling of the presidential and legislative elections.

Tharcisse Loseke Nembalemba, member of DTP, declared that candidate Etienne Tshisekedi wa Mulumba “is not against” the idea of “decoupling”. According to Loseke, “the two elections can be decoupled so that there is no pretext on which the outgoing president can defer the presidential election”.

Jean-Claude Ndjakanyi Shongo declared that “UNC of Vital Kamerhe is against the whole idea of decoupling the elections. It is necessary to avoid the situation where the elected president exercises an influence over the electoral body during the voting of national representatives”.

Similarly, Dieudonne Wabi, representing Léon Kengo wa Dondo’s UFC in Benelux, declared that “UFC is against decoupling of the elections”. “Any decoupling could only be analysed as an attempt to influence the results of the legislative elections”. Wabi questions “Henceforth, what becomes of the argument formerly invoked to justify the reduction of presidential polls to one round in order not to burden the public Treasury with debt?”. He concludes that “from a constitutional point of view, the decoupling of elections could have a detrimental impact on the temporal competence of outgoing national representatives of the legislature whose mandate is supposed to end on December 6th.

Ex-Secretary of State for Information under the 2nd republic, Vincent Nzuzi Mulamba, is simply “against” a separation of the two political consultations fixed on November 28th, maintaining: “I am against [it] because decoupling risks favouring the elected president who will have no lack of influence on the election of national representatives”. Nzuzi concludes: “The Congolese have the distressing reputation of going where power lies…”.

On October 14th, during a political workshop held in the morning at Kinshasa, the organisations of the Civil Society of DRC that regrouped on the platform of “Acting for Transparent and Calm Elections” (AETA) brings up logistical, technical, political and security difficulties that CENI is confronted with and assesses that this institution will not be able to organise the presidential and legislative polls in accordance with the electoral calendar. These NGOs pointed out that the “fumbling and non-transparent” execution of electoral operations could have negative consequences on holding the elections “within the stipulated period and under acceptable conditions”. The permanent secretary of AETA, Jérôme Bonso, declared that the deferment of elections does not necessarily call for the formation of a new government. He proposed: “It is possible to come to a consensus on how much time would be needed by CENI to organise the elections in a calm environment”. For the president of the joint committee Congo Synergy, Christopher Mutamba, it is necessary for CENI, the political parties and the Civil Society to reach a consensus.

Electoral issues in the East

As usual, the elections do not have the same meaning in the provinces and in the capital. While those in the latter only think and speak of the presidential elections, the provincial and legislative elections dominate the strategies and minds of those in the East.

In North Kivu in 2006, 1,172,693 voters, the majority of which are Rwandophones, were registered in Little North, consisting of the territories of Masisi, Rutshuru, Goma and Nyiragongoet. 1,289,319 voters, the majority of which are people of Nandé ethnicity, were registered in Big North, consisting of the territories of Beni, Beni city, Butembo and Lubero. The voters of Big North thus represent 52% of voters in North Kivu. The 2006 elections therefore allowed the Nandés to only just take control of North Kivu. Thanks to the slight demographical superiority, the Nandés could dominate the elected institutions: Julien Paluku, the governor of North Kivu since 2006, is a Nandé; in the National Assembly, Big North has twenty-five seats and Small North twenty-three, while in the Provincial Assembly, Big North has twenty seats and the Small North eighteen. However, recent registrations reverse the demographic ratios. In Small North, 1,389,994 voters were registered, while 937,995 voters were registered in Big North.

In North Kivu, the rate of registration of voters in Goma is 161% of the number expected and this rate is 216% in the territory of Nyiragongo. Thus, the number of voters in Goma has increased from 180,995 in 2006 to 351,455 this year (for an expected number of 218,000 voters) and this number in the territory of Nyiragongo increased from 41,083 in 2006 to 107,458 this year (for an expected number of 49,700 voters).

The territory of Rutshuru, which is very populated (with 481,054 voters, eight seats in the National Assembly and six seats in the Provincial Assembly) and where the population divided amongst Nandés, Hundés and Rwandophones, will become a key territory in the legislative and provincial elections.

In South Kivu, the home province of Vital Kamerhe, issues in both legislative and provincial elections exist in a very fragmented local political context. This is the province in which UNC can have the greatest influence. This party’s strongholds are in the territories of Fizi (191,295 voters registered), Uvira (297,624 voters registered), Walungu (265,963 voters registered), Bukavu (290,069 voters registered) and Idjwi (95,074 voters registered). However, it is necessary to put into perspective the potential electoral of UNC as it shares a part of its electorate with UDPS that also lays claims to strong popularity in the territory of Fizi and in Bukavu. Moreover, the Bashi community, home to Vital Kamerhe, is divided and its leaders customarily support Joseph Kabila.

Indeed, since 2006, Joseph Kabila tries to woo the Bashi community, represented in the government by the Agricultural Minister, Norbert Basengi Katintima. The PPRD then launched a large operation in the territory of Walungu to attract this community by appointing Eugène Mukubaganyi Mulume, coordinator of MP, the leader of the Mwenshe group from which the governor Marcelin Cishambo and the president of UNC, Vital Kamerhe, came.

Just as in North Kivu where registrations permitted the inversion of demographics between Small and Big North, registrations led to diminishing political influence of the Bashi community in the province of South Kivu. In the territories of Shabunda, Mwenga, Fizi and Idjwi, where the Bashi community is a minority, the registration rates are above 100% of the number of voters expected (Territory of Idjwi, 107.38%; Territory of Fizi, 122.84%; Territory of Mwenga, 113.71%; Territory of Shabunda, 102.25%). Although the territories of Fizi and Idjwi have a very weak electoral influence (number of registered voters: territory of Idjwi: 88,537; territory of Fizi: 191,295; territory of Mwenga: 240,826; territory of Shabunda: 146,685), this could somewhat reduce the electoral influence of Bashis in the local political system of South Kivu.

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This English translation has been possible thanks to the project: Free translation of websites for NGOs and non-profit-making organisations . A project managed by Mondo Agit . Translator: Peishan Sun

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